Hurricane Fay - The National Hurricane Center forecasts Tropical Storm Fay to become Hurricane Fay while south of Cuba and be a Category 3 hurricane when it hits Florida.
The latest NHC update on the projected storm track shows Hurricane Fay coming ashore with Category 3 winds near Fort Myers, Florida on Tuesday morning.
NOAA National Hurricane Center Latest Forecast
EVERYONE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY…AS MOST LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT.
ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS STRENGTHENING…AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.
HOWEVER…THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL ORGANIZED OVER WATER.
And that’s the latest on the projected storm track for Hurricane Fay.
Tags: hurricane fay, hurricane faye, hurricane florida, national hurricane center, tropical storm fay, tropical storm faye
August 17th, 2008 at 11:21 am
National Hurricane Center - Latest Update
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
FAY APPEARS A LITTLE RAGGED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING…WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION IN BANDS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY…AND A SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM CABO CRUZ CUBA REPORTED 45 KT. BASED ON THIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11…A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN 6 HR AGO.
FAY IS APPROACHING A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…WHICH IS DEVELOPING DUE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 24 HR…BUT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH OF A TURN WILL OCCUR.
THE ECMWF…GFS…AND GFDL FORECAST A NORTHEASTWARD TURN TAKING FAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE HWRF…UKMET…AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR A NORTHWARD MOTION OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THEN…THE NOGPAS CALLS FOR A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
OVERALL…THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST THEREAFTER.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS THUS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR…THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING…WITH THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER…THE SHEAR IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR IF FAY CAN DEVELOP AN INNER CORE.
THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36-48 HR…WHILE THE HWRF…WHICH KEEPS FAY OVER WATER LONGER…FORECASTS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 1/2 HURRICANE IN 48-60.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL…WITH FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
FAY COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST IF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE FORMS…OR IF IT TRACKS MORE TO THE WEST AND STAYS LONGER OVER WATER.