Tropical Storm Erika | Tropical Storm Erica – The latest tropical storm of the 2009 hurricane season, TS Erika (aka Erica), has a projected path that threatens the most populated Caribbean islands and then Florida.
The National Hurricane Center predicts that Tropical Storm Erika will bring high winds and heavy rain to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Haiti and Cuba on its projected path toward the U.S. coastline.
Erika, or Erica as its more commonly spelled, could be the first hurricane of the 2009 season to make landfall in the U.S., as so far its been a very quiet year for hurricanes.
Of course, all it takes is one big storm to wreak havoc on low-lying areas, so keep an eye on Erika’s storm track as it crosses the Caribbean because the upper-level steering winds are conducive to more strengthening.
The latest updates on Erika from the National Hurricane Center are posted below.
And that’s the latest news on the projected path of Tropical Storm Erika.
Tags: 2009 hurricane names, erica path, erika path, hurricane erika, national hurricane center, tropical storm erica, tropical storm erika
September 1st, 2009 at 11:46 am
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS TO GALE FORCE EAST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER…MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE…GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT…OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON.
September 1st, 2009 at 7:41 pm
Tropical Storm Erika Strengthens
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HAS FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB AND A CLOSED…ALBEIT…BROAD CIRCULATION.
PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 52 KT WITH SFMR DATA OF ABOUT 45 KT. THUS…TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS FORMED WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIKA IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM SEEMS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SSTS ARE WARM AND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE.
HOWEVER…IN ABOUT TWO DAYS…GLOBAL MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE SHEAR NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FROM A MID-OCEANIC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ERIKA WEAKENING AFTER TWO DAYS DUE TO THE SHEAR.
THE TWO BIG OUTLIERS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE THE GFDL/HWRF…WHICH FORM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR ERIKA AND MAKE IT A HURRICANE.
THE NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS…THEN WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR TAKES OVER.
THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME…BUT IT IS OF NOTE THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW ERIKA EVENTUALLY BECOMING A HURRICANE…DESPITE THE SHEAR.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8…THOUGH THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE DONE SOME REFORMATION SINCE YESTERDAY.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE ERIKA TO MOVE ALONG THAT GENERAL COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER…THE STORM COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
THIS FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS THE TRACK PROBABLY HAS A STRONG DEPENDENCE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF ERIKA.
A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY MOVE MORE TO THE WEST…SIMILAR TO THE UKMET OR GFS MODELS.
HOWEVER…A STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY FEEL THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND MOVE MORE TO THE RIGHT…LIKE THE HWRF/GFDL.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST IN THE LONGER-TERM.
BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN THAT AREA.
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA PROJECTED PATH:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.2N 57.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 17.7N 58.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.4N 60.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.1N 62.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 19.8N 63.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.0N 66.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 23.0N 69.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 72.0W 45 KT
September 1st, 2009 at 10:16 pm
National Hurricane Center Computer Models Disagree on Erika
Tropical Storm Erika is still in its formative stages and the NHC computer models, aka spaghetti models, are at odds over whether Erika will die out or grow into a strong hurricane.
Only time will tell, so here’s the latest update:
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2009
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN TRAVERSING ERIKA AND FOUND THAT THE CENTER HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A DROP WAS 1004 MB.
THIS VALUE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER SINCE THE DROP MEASURED 19 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SFMR AND THE PLANE MEASURED 55 AND 50 KNOTS…RESPECTIVELY…TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THEREFORE…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS.
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE HIGH-CLOUD MOTION THAT THE SHEAR HAS LESSENED A LITTLE BIT.
ERIKA COULD STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER…MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS OVER ERIKA…A PATTERN THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.
IN FACT…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING DURING THAT PERIOD AS OPPOSED TO THE GFDL AND HWRF THAT BOTH MAKE ERIKA A STRONG HURRICANE.
ERIKA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS…BUT THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF THE CYCLONE BEING IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE.
ERIKA IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.
BECAUSE THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD A LITTLE BIT…ERIKA SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK.
SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT VERY STRONG….ERIKA SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY.
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW.
BOTH THE UK AND THE GFS TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WHICH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL OPTIONS.
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA PROJECTED PATH:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 17.5N 57.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 18.0N 58.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 18.5N 60.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 19.0N 61.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 19.5N 63.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 21.0N 66.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 22.6N 68.4W 45 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 24.5N 71.0W 45 KT
September 2nd, 2009 at 6:50 am
Disorganized TS Erika Moves South Overnight
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN SEARCHING FOR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME QUITE DISORGANIZED…BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TRACK.
HOWEVER THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE CENTERS…SO THE ADVISORY POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND PROBABLY REPRESENTS A MEAN CENTER…OR THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
THE INITIAL MOTION…270/4…IS OF COURSE ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWING THE TRACK GUIDANCE…A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS PREDICTED TO RESUME.
ERIKA SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE…E.G.
THE GFDL AND HWRF…AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM…E.G. THE GFS.
THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST.
DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ERIKA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE…WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES.
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE CYCLONE BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER…AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FARTHER TO THE WEST IS LIKELY TO IMPART INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON ERIKA…WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS…BUT BELOW THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THESE NUMERICAL MODELS…SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL…HAVE SHOWN A HIGH BIAS FOR A COUPLE OF THIS YEAR’S ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES.
GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM ERICA TRACK:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0900Z 17.0N 59.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 17.3N 60.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 17.8N 61.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 18.4N 62.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 19.0N 64.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 20.3N 66.9W 50 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 22.0N 69.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 24.0N 72.0W 45 KT
September 2nd, 2009 at 7:01 am
Tropical Storm Erika Now Moving West
Tropical Storm Erika, or Erica as some spell it, is now moving due west and will pass directly over the Leeward Islands within the next day or so, depending on her forward speed.
Erika is a large (240 miles across), disorganized tropical storm whose slow movement will bring heavy rains and high waves over a long period of time to the islands in the eastern Caribbean.
Here’s an interim advisory from the National Hurricane Center:
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
800 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009
…DISORGANIZED ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…A LITTLE WEAKER…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA…BARBUDA…MONTSERRAT…ST. KITTS…NEVIS…ANGUILLA…ST. MAARTEN…SABA…AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
AT 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS RELOCATED TO NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES…255 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ERIKA HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR…AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES…195 KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.
ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…16.5N 59.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
September 2nd, 2009 at 8:31 am
Tropical storm erica or hurricaine erica?
September 2nd, 2009 at 11:18 am
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOW THAT ERIKA IS A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM.
THERE ARE MULTIPLE SWIRLS APPARENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING IN THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WITH A MEAN CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE SFMR EARLIER REPORTED WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KT…WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES…SO THAT VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED EARLIER THAN EXPECTED…WITH CIMSS DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15-20 KT OF SHEAR. AT FIRST GLANCE…THE SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG OVER THE SYSTEM WITH SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REPORTED AT 200 MB OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
HOWEVER…UPPER-AIR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE AND ST. MAARTEN SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS PRIMARILY COMING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 300 MB-250 MB…AND THIS IS APPARENTLY UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW LAYERS AT 200 MB AND ABOVE.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RELAXATION OF THIS SHEAR…AND ACTUALLY SHOW IT INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
DESPITE ALL THIS SHEAR…ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS.
THIS REINTENSIFICATION DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE.
GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD…IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED.
A 24-HOUR MOTION IS ABOUT 275/9. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS PREDICTED TO RESUME AS THE STORM MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A FEW DAYS…AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF ERIKA REMAINING WEAK.
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT…OVERALL…THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM ERICA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 16.5N 60.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 16.9N 61.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 17.4N 62.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 18.0N 64.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 18.6N 65.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 20.0N 68.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 21.5N 71.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 23.5N 73.5W 30 KT
September 2nd, 2009 at 1:57 pm
[...] ERIKA HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR… … Continued here: Tropical Storm Erika | Tropical Storm Erica Share and [...]
September 2nd, 2009 at 2:42 pm
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
200 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009
…ERIKA NEAR GUADELOUPE…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE…ST. MARTIN…ST. BARTHELEMY…ANTIGUA…BARBUDA…MONTSERRAT…ST. KITTS…NEVIS…ANGUILLA…ST. MAARTEN…SABA…AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
AT 200 PM AST…1800 UTC….THE CENTER OF THE POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…ERIKA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HOWEVER…SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE STORM MAY BE WEAKENING.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE THE INTENSITY OF ERIKA.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY WITH SOME SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM MAINLY WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.
ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
OVER PUERTO RICO…3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
…SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…16.2N 61.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
September 2nd, 2009 at 10:40 pm
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009
ERIKA IS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES INDICATE THAT ERIKA IS VERY DISORGANIZED AND CONSISTS OF A BROAD ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS…LIMITED TO A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
A NEW CENTER COULD REFORM AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE LARGE GYRE.
INFRARED PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THERE IS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS…BUT THERE IS ALSO SHEAR CAUSED BY WINDS BELOW THE CIRRUS CANOPY BECAUSE THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION.
IT APPEARS THAT ERIKA IS ON ITS WAY TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR REFORM SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THAT IS THE REASON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THEREAFTER…THE COMBINATION OF VERY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND THE LAND MASS OF HISPANIOLA ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE…WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.
THE HWRF IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT FORECAST ERIKA TO BECOME A STRONG HURRICANE AND THIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO OCCUR.
THE CENTER OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS LIMITED SINCE VARIOUS MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE WITH TIME AND THE TRACKERS NO LONGER FOLLOW THE CENTER.
HOWEVER…THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0300Z 16.1N 62.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 16.4N 63.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 17.0N 65.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 18.0N 67.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 18.5N 68.5W 30 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 71.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 73.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/0000Z…DISSIPATED
September 3rd, 2009 at 7:39 am
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 AM AST THU SEP 03 2009
ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIXED A FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER…THERE ARE A FAIR NUMBER OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REGION…AND THESE SHOW THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS AT BEST POORLY-DEFINED.
THE SYSTEM MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH ORIENTED FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THERE WERE A FEW 34 TO 37-KT SFMR SURFACE WIND READINGS SOME 40-75 N MI NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER…SO THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT.
EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY NO LONGER BE A DEFINITE SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION…WE WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORIES ON THE SYSTEM PENDING ADDITIONAL DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE IMAGERY.
RADIOSONDE DATA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AREA SUGGEST THAT THE STORM HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO FLOW AT ABOUT THE 250 MB LEVEL…WHICH IS LIKELY JUST BELOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTFLOW LAYER.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER ERIKA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS.
IN SPITE OF THE STRONG SHEAR…THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THAT ERIKA WILL INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE ARE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE…PARTICULARLY THE LATTER.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND ANTICIPATES THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LOCATION…OR EXISTENCE…OF THE SURFACE CENTER…THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/6 IS MORE OF AN EDUCATED GUESS.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE LIES TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA.
AS THE MODELS BUILD THIS RIDGE SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY.
LATER IN THE PERIOD A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE PRIMARILY DUE TO A SLIGHT NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE INITIAL POSITION.
EVEN IF ERIKA LOSES ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS…IT COULD MAINTAIN VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 16.5N 62.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 17.1N 64.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 17.9N 65.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 18.7N 67.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 19.5N 68.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 21.0N 70.8W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0600Z 22.5N 73.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/0600Z…DISSIPATED
September 3rd, 2009 at 7:53 am
Tropical Storm Erika Satellite View
September 3rd, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Tropical Storm Erika Unexpectedly Moves Southwest
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
200 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009
…AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FINDS CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED ERIKA FARTHER SOUTHWEST…
AT 2 PM AST…1800 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA AND GUADELOUPE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO…THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…ST. MARTIN…ST. BARTHELEMY…ANTIGUA…BARBUDA…MONTSERRAT…ST.KITTS…NEVIS…ANGUILLA…ST. MAARTEN…SABA…AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
AT 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES…130 KM…SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 155 MILES…245 KM…SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND APPROACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND ERIKA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ERIKA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM…PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.
ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES…PUERTO RICO…AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
…SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…16.6N 64.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.