Tropical Storm Ana | Hurricane Ana – The first tropical storm of the 2009 hurricane season, TS Ana, has formed in the mid-Atlantic and may become Hurricane Ana soon.
While it appears that Tropical Storm Ana will not threaten any of the islands or the U.S. mainland, National Hurricane Center forecasters say that based on statistical models, TS Ana could strengthen into Hurricane Ana by Saturday.
Tropical storm force winds from Ana will cover a wide area and produce large amounts of rain. The associated storm surge could cause some flooding problems in the eastern Caribbean.
National Hurricane Center Forecast
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES MARGINALLY WARM WATERS. IN GENERAL…THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SOME STRENGTHENING…THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF SOME DRIER/STABLE AIR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION MAY PLAY AN INHIBITING ROLE.
THE STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS…WHILE THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THOSE OUTCOMES AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
IN THE LONGER-TERM…MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 14.6N 32.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 14.6N 34.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 14.6N 36.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 14.6N 38.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 15.0N 41.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 16.5N 46.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 19.0N 52.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 22.5N 58.5W 40 KT
And that’s the latest news on the formation of Tropical Storm Ana | Hurricane Ana.
Tags: 2009 hurricane season, hurricane ana, national hurricane center, tropical storm ana, tropical storm anna, ts ana
August 15th, 2009 at 4:15 am
[...] Tropical Storm Ana | Hurricane Ana [...]
August 15th, 2009 at 7:22 am
Tropical Storm Ana Latest Update
According to the latest storm track update from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Ana could become a category 2 hurricane.
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ANA. THE STORM IS DISPLAYING IMPROVED BANDING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE ALONG WITH A BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
NOAA BUOY 41041 REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1005 MB AS THE DEPRESSION PASSED VERY NEAR THE BUOY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS PATTERN FAVORS THE TRACK OF ANA GRADUALLY BENDING FROM A WEST TO A WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS TO THIS TRACK ARE THE GFDL AND GFS…WHICH BOTH WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RATHER QUICKLY…LEADING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE CYCLONE.
IN A FEW DAYS…SOME OF THE MODELS…SUCH AS THE GFS…SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE.
THIS WEAKNESS APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 25N 65W.
HOWEVER…THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INFLUENCE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.
GENERALLY…THE MODELS THAT HOLD ONTO ANA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FOR THIS ADVISORY…BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE 0000 UTC GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES…SHOWING A WEAKER MID-OCEANIC TROUGH AFFECTING THE SYSTEM.
IN PARTICULAR…THE UKMET AND NOGAPS BUILD UPPER-RIDGING NEAR THE CYCLONE WITH LIGHT SHEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER…THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR DEVELOPING IN ABOUT A DAY…BUT EVEN THAT MODEL HAS LIGHTER SHEAR CONDITIONS IN A FEW DAYS.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RUNS THE FULL SPECTRUM THIS MORNING…WITH THE GFDL DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM…WHILE THE HWRF SHOWS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY…IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL BUT BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
TS ANA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 14.6N 46.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 14.7N 49.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 15.3N 52.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 16.1N 56.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 17.0N 60.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 19.5N 67.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 22.5N 73.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 26.0N 78.5W 60 KT
August 15th, 2009 at 7:30 am
[...] heads toward the Leeward Islands, forecasters said Saturday. http://blog.taragana.com/n/ Tropical Storm Ana | Hurricane Ana Aug 12, 2009 Tropical Storm Ana | Hurricane Ana – The first tropical storm of the 2009 [...]
August 15th, 2009 at 7:31 am
Tropical Storm Ana Path
August 15th, 2009 at 9:16 am
[...] Tropical Storm Ana | Hurricane AnaTropical Storm Ana | Hurricane Ana – The first tropical storm of the 2009 hurricane season, TS Ana, has formed in the mid-Atlantic and may become Hurricane Ana soon.Read More [...]
August 15th, 2009 at 9:34 am
[...] [...]
August 15th, 2009 at 10:08 am
[...] as it heads toward the Leeward Islands. The National.Free INFO – http://all4freehere.com/|||Tropical Storm Ana | Hurricane AnaTropical Storm Ana | Hurricane Ana – The first tropical storm of the 2009 hurricane season, TS [...]
August 15th, 2009 at 10:22 am
[...] as it heads toward the Leeward Islands. The National.Free INFO – http://all4freehere.com/|||Tropical Storm Ana | Hurricane AnaTropical Storm Ana | Hurricane Ana – The first tropical storm of the 2009 hurricane season, TS [...]
August 15th, 2009 at 11:07 am
[...] Tropical Storm Ana | Hurricane AnaTropical Storm Ana | Hurricane Ana – The first tropical storm of the 2009 hurricane season, TS Ana, has formed in the mid-Atlantic and may become Hurricane Ana soon.Read More [...]