Hurricane Hanna Projected Path - The National Hurricane Center says that Hurricane Hanna could be a major hurricane when it hits South Carolina.
After wandering around the Bahamas for a few days like a drunken sailor, Hanna is now making a high-speed run up the East Coast with projected landfall in the middle of the South Carolina coastline.
Hurricane Hugo gave South Carolina a savage beating back in 1989 and now Hanna looks prepared to carve a path straight through the Palmetto State as well.
Computer predictions show projected landfall at mid-afternoon on Friday. The storm track runs up through both Carolinas and Virginia before heading back out to see. The current storm path shows Hannah roaring through major cities of Columbia, SC and Charlotte, NC while packing some significant winds.
National Hurricane Center - Latest Computer Model Forecast:
HURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008HANNA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA…AFTER WHICH IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HANNA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY…OR AT LEAST REMAIN STEADY…UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS BETWEEN 84 AND 96 HOURS.
IN FACT…BY 84 HOURS HANNA COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE.
And that’s the latest news from the NHC on the Hurricane Hanna projected path.
Tags: hurricane hanna, hurricane hanna projected path, national hurricane center
September 2nd, 2008 at 7:29 pm
Hurricane Hanna Track
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HANNA CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED.
THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB WAS 66 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE. HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM.
BY TOMORROW…GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF JUST WEST OF HANNA AND THEN DROP SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IF THIS EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES…AND ASSUMING HANNA IS ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR…THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR HANNA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO…IN LINE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS.
HOWEVER…THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS COMPLEX…WHICH RESULTS IN LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT HANNA CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 150/02.
TRACK MODELS INSIST THAT HANNA WILL START ITS MUCH-ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SOON…AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.
SUCH A TRACK WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
HANNA IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT MAKES ITS APPROACH TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER…UNTIL HANNA BEGINS A MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION…IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA.
IN ADDITION…THE ANTICIPATED ANGLE OF APPROACH TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST MEANS THAN ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS IN BOTH TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL.
IN FACT…THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE SHOWS THAT THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ABOUT EQUAL AT EACH SPECIFIC LOCATION ALONG THE COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 20.4N 72.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 20.9N 73.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 22.2N 74.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 23.5N 75.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 25.4N 77.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 30.5N 80.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 38.0N 78.0W 30 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 07/1800Z 47.0N 66.0W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
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September 4th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Hurricane Hannah Projected Path
Latest update on projected path of Hurricane Hannah track from the National Hurricane Center shows that Hanna is a very large hurricane some 600 miles across, but a very weak one. Read the latest computer tracking models discussion and forecasted track update below.
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TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
LOOKS CAN CERTAINLY BE DECEIVING. HANNA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AN EARLIER STRONG BURST DIED AFTER ABOUT 04Z…AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST CONTINUES TO IMPOSE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR.
NEVERTHELESS…HANNA HAS A LARGE AND ROBUST CIRCULATION…AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 MB.
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB HAVE BEEN AS STRONG AS 65 KT…AND NUMEROUS SFMR VALUES OF 55-60 KT HAVE BEEN RETRIEVED.
I HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO DISCOUNT THE SFMR WINDS…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.
GIVEN THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO PERSIST OVER HANNA EVEN AS IT GAINS LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…STRENGTHENING WOULD AT FIRST GLANCE SEEM UNLIKELY.
CONSISTENT WITH THAT THINKING…THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR EVEN SOME WEAKENING…EXCEPT MUCH LATER WHEN HANNA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
ON THE OTHER HAND…THE SHIPS AND LGEM…DESPITE DIAGNOSING LITTLE CHANGE IN SHEAR…FORECAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS.
A CONSENSUS OF THESE VARIOUS MODELS WOULD YIELD A FLAT 60 KT INTENSITY FORECAST UNTIL HANNA PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE CAROLINAS…BUT FOR CONTINUITY AND SINCE HANNA IS ALREADY PRODUCING WINDS JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH….65 KT IS STILL SHOWN EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS HANNA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
DESPITE HAVING AIRCRAFT FIXES…THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAGE…PROBABLY DUE TO THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION…BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/10.
HANNA SHOULD ROUND THE BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ROUGHLY HUG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES…BUT PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE WAY.
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO THE BENEFIT OF DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET MISSION LAST NIGHT…THE LATEST MODEL TRACKS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE TIGHTER AGREEMENT…AND IN GENERAL THEY HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE…TO BE CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS.
AS ALWAYS…ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER…ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 24.0N 72.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 25.3N 74.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 27.5N 76.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 30.3N 78.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 33.5N 78.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 41.0N 72.5W 50 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 08/0600Z 48.5N 59.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0600Z 51.5N 41.0W 45 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
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Hurricane Hanna 8:00 a.m. - Latest Update
AT 800 AM AST…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES…455 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 760 MILES…1220 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.
HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY…AND WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER…RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES…465 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB…29.20 INCHES.