Tropical Storm Ike – Latest computer model maps from the National Hurricane Center for the projected path of Tropical Storm Ike 2008.
09-01-2008
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09-01-2008
Tropical Storm Ike – Latest computer model maps from the National Hurricane Center for the projected path of Tropical Storm Ike 2008.
September 1st, 2008 at 11:33 pm
Hurricane Ike Projected Path Latest Update
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER…THE BANDING FEATURE OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE HAS ERODED A BIT…PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
REGARDLESS…DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE INTENSITY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A CLIMATOLOGICAL STRENGTHENING RATE WITH TIME…AND SUGGEST THAT IKE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THERE IS HOWEVER A LITTLE DIVERGENCE IN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING BEYOND 48 HOURS.
BOTH THE GFDL AND THE HWRF INTENSIFY IKE INTO A POWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 275/12…WITHIN IN THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST…THE UKMET IS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL OUTSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CLUSTER AND INDICATES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5…WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD MOTION.
THE UKMET TRACK IS MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO A DIFFERENCE IN THE POSITION OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CREATED BY A SLOWER MOVING HURRICANE HANNA.
ACCORDINGLY…THE NHC FORECAST IS WEIGHED MORE HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE MODELS THAT SUGGEST A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 18.0N 41.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 18.5N 43.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 19.2N 46.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 49.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 20.8N 52.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 22.0N 59.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 71.0W 90 KT
September 3rd, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Hurricane Ike Path – Latest Track Update
Ike is now a Category 3 hurricane and projected to reach Category 4 strength Thursday.
Latest track update shows Ike curving up through the Bahamas toward southern Florida on Tuesday as a Category 4 hurricane.
HURRICANE IKE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF IKE.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.
SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION PERFORMED BY TAFB AND SAB BOTH YIELD T-NUMBERS OF 5.5.
IN FACT…THE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN ABOUT 6.0-6.5 DURING THE LAST 2-3 HOURS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 100 KT…MAKING IKE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD…BUT AS WITH ALL INTENSE HURRICANES…SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST…AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE WIND RADII.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0000Z 21.7N 53.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 22.6N 55.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 23.8N 57.9W 115 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 24.3N 60.4W 115 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 23.8N 63.1W 110 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 22.5N 68.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 23.5N 76.0W 115 KT
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September 3rd, 2008 at 11:26 pm
Hurricane Ike Track – Latest Projected Path
Ike is now a Category 4 hurricane.
Latest track update shows Hurricane Ike headed for south Florida.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
IKE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS EVENING. AN EYE BECAME APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHORTLY AFTER 2100 UTC.
SINCE THAT TIME THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT WITH A RING OF VERY COLD CLOUDS TOPS SURROUNDING IT.
THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS WERE T6.0 AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE AVERAGED T6.2 SINCE 2045 UTC.
BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT…MAKING IKE A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO…THIS WILL LARGELY BE CONTROLLED BY EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.
HOWEVER BOTH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW AN INTENSE HURRICANE LIKE IKE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS SHEAR.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SOME WEAKENING BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS DUE TO THE SHEAR…BUT NOT AS MUCH AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
AT DAYS 4 AND 5…IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE SO RE-STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AT THAT TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE…AND THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY RESPOND BY TURNING IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
THE LINGERING QUESTION THAT REMAINS AT THE LONGER RANGE IS WHEN IKE WILL MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
THE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
THE GFDL IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A TRACK NEAR HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA…WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW A POSITION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
FOR NOW…THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF…THE 12Z ECMWF…AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 22.1N 54.1W 115 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 23.1N 56.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 24.0N 58.7W 105 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 24.3N 61.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 23.8N 63.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 68.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 72.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 24.0N 75.5W 115 KT
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