Tropical Storm Gustav - Continuous updates on projected path of Tropical Storm Gustav and latest storm track models from the National Hurricane Center.
The latest projected path for Tropical Storm Gustav, aka TS Gustav, are posted below along with storm track models.
The Gustav spaghetti models below are the latest updates available to track the storm’s projected path.
Latest storm track model for Tropical Storm Gustav:
National Hurricane Center - Tropical Storm Gustav
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 71.0W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB
AFTER ITS RATHER RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION EARLIER TODAY…THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED-LOOKING…PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CENTER.
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A VERY SMALL AREA OF STRONG WINDS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 67 KT.
USING A 75 PERCENT RATIO OF SURFACE TO FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS APPROPRIATE FOR THE 925 MB FLIGHT ALTITUDE GIVES 50 KT FOR THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
ASSUMING THE CURRENTLY LESS-ORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IS MERELY TEMPORARY…STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY GIVEN THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…THE STRENGTH OF GUSTAV WILL OBVIOUSLY BE A STRONG FUNCTION OF HOW MUCH THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH LAND.
INTERESTINGLY…THE GFS CONTINUES TO FAIL TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF GUSTAV CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST…315/12. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION OF GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST…WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE TO THE LEFT OF THIS NHC FORECAST.
NOTE THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS…AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THESE PRECISE POINTS.
THE WIND RADII WERE DECREASED A LITTLE SINCE THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT GUSTAV IS A LITTLE SMALLER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 16.3N 71.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.2N 72.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.4N 73.3W 65 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.4N 74.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 20.2N 75.5W 65 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 21.3N 77.5W 55 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 29/1800Z 22.0N 79.0W 50 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 30/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W 50 KT…INLAND
Tropical Storm Gustav is projected to quickly reach hurricane strength Tuesday morning, only 24 hours after becoming a tropical depression.
Additionally, Gustav’s rapid intensity growth from the storm’s first tropical depression status on August 25th at 8:00 a.m. to full-fledged hurricane status on August 26th at 8:00 a.m. is the fastest ever recorded by the NOAA.
And that’s the latest update on the projected path of Tropical Storm Gustav.
Tags: gustav path, gustav track, tropical storm gustav, tropical storm gustav path, tropical storm gustav track, ts gustav
August 25th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008
GUSTAV CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HISPANIOLA…
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 800 PM EDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES…270 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR…AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER HAITI ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO MOVING OVER LAND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES…85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB…29.41 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION…16.4 N…71.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB.
THE NEXT GUSTAV ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:17 pm
Gustav Nears Hurricane Strength
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008
GUSTAV STRENGTHENS…ALMOST A HURRICANE…
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES…240 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF HAITI TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST…AND GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES…85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB…29.23 INCHES.
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS…WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND A THICKENING EYEWALL.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 00Z WERE T3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB BUT THE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THEN.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT AT 06Z WILL MOST LIKELY FIND A HURRICANE. A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL EYEWALL.
GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE…AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY…SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI.
AFTER THAT…THE INTENSITY OF GUSTAV WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HAITI AND CUBA.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT…WHILE NOT ANTICYCLONIC…IS AT LEAST DIFLUENT AND OF LIGHT SHEAR.
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK INDICATES MORE TIME OVER WATER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THAT.
BOTH THE GFDL AND THE HWRF SHOW GUSTAV AVOIDING NEARLY ALL OF CUBA AND HAVE GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE IN FIVE DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF GUSTAV’S FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE LEFT.
EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS…THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS KEEP GUSTAV SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT MOST OF THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 16.6N 71.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 17.5N 72.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 18.5N 73.9W 80 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 27/1200Z 19.3N 75.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 19.8N 76.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 20.5N 78.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 21.5N 80.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 31/0000Z 23.0N 83.5W 75 KT
Visible Loop of Gustav Storm Track
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html
August 26th, 2008 at 9:28 am
Hurricane Gustav Latest Update
Gustav becomes hurricane in record time.
Now headed for Gulf of Mexico towards Texas.
Expected to be a MAJOR hurricane upon landfall.
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION HAS FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT…PEAK SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 76 KT…AND A RECENT ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 984 MB.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 75 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ORGANIZING PATTERN WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BECOMING MORE PROMINENT AND GUSTAV IS LIKELY NOT DONE INTENSIFYING BEFORE IT PASSES OVER SOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER TODAY.
SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN 24 HR DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI. THEREAFTER…THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER EXTREMELY WARM WATERS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED AND NOW CALLS FOR GUSTAV TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE GFDL/HWRF FORECAST SHOW AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE.
MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A FEW DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8…THOUGH GUSTAV MAY RECENTLY BE MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO NOTE THIS MORNING IS A DRAMATIC SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT WITH ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM GUSTAV…LEAVING RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE HURRICANE WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST IN A DAY OR SO DUE TO THIS BUILDING RIDGE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 24 HR BUT IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT BUT WE’D PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 17.2N 71.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 72.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.8N 74.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 19.2N 75.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 19.4N 76.9W 85 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 20.0N 79.3W 90 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 21.0N 82.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 31/0600Z 23.0N 85.5W 100 KT
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN HAITI LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 981 MB…28.97 INCHES.
August 26th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Gustav Track Models - Latest Update From NHC
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008
GUSTAV APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI…
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK THIS HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE OVER SOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER TODAY AND NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE…AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION EARLY THIS MORNING FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 91 KT…AND AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 78 KT. THESE MEASUREMENTS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT.
A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE OF GUSTAV DURING THE LAST AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH THE CENTER JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC…FOUND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 982 MB…BUT WITH 12 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE…SO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN ESTIMATED SLIGHTLY LOWER.
THE AIRCRAFT AND EARLIER MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY SMALL EYE…HOWEVER THE EYE HAS NOT YET BECOME APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI…WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 325/8.
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST VERY SOON AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER FLORIDA.
THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.
THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…WHICH KEEPS GUSTAVE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE GFDL…HWRF…AND GFS WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/HWRF SCENARIO AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING GUSTAV’S PASSAGE OVER LAND…AND SINCE IT IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM IT COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.
THEREAFTER…GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT…WHICH FAVORS STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BELOW THAT OF THE GFDL…BUT IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE HWRF.
ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO POTENTIALLY LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/1500Z 17.9N 72.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 18.6N 73.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 19.1N 74.6W 80 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 19.3N 75.9W 85 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 19.4N 77.3W 90 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 19.9N 80.2W 100 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 21.5N 83.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 31/1200Z 24.0N 87.0W 105 KT
August 26th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES…ON WHICH THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE BECAME EVIDENT…INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1730 UTC.
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 992 MB WAS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT JUST AS THE CENTER MOVED INLAND…HOWEVER A DROPSONDE RELEASED JUST EAST OF THE EYE HAD A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 997 MB WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 64 KT.
SO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MAY HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN 992 MB.
IN ANY EVENT…NOW THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI…GUSTAV IS LIKELY LOSING STRENGTH.
THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES…AND THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH ONLY A LITTLE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR…AND THEREFORE GUSTAV IS LIKELY TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS…LGEM…HWRF…AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST.
IT SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND MODEL FORECASTS OF INTENSITY HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN THE 3- TO 5-DAY RANGE.
INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 305/9.
THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE STEERING PATTERN FOR GUSTAV CONTINUES TO BE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE/HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE’S HEADING SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO…AND OVERALL THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 18.4N 73.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 18.9N 74.0W 75 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 19.3N 75.2W 80 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 76.6W 85 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 19.6N 78.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 20.3N 81.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 22.5N 85.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 25.5N 88.5W 105 KT
August 26th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008
GUSTAV STILL A HURRICANE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI…
AT 8 PM EDT…0000Z…THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO…SANTIAGO DE CUBA…AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AT 800 PM EDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED…BASED ON IMAGES FROM THE RADAR AT GRAN PIEDRA CUBA…TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES…100 KM…WEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 155 MILES…250 KM…SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT…AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK…HURRICANE GUSTAV SHOULD PASS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS MOVING BACK OVER WATER AND IS STILL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS GUSTAV INTERACTS WITH LAND…BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WHEN THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA…EASTERN CUBA…AND JAMAICA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION…18.5 N…73.3 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
August 26th, 2008 at 11:26 pm
Gustav Track - Latest Update On Computer Models
Gustav could be Category 4 hurricane in 72 hours…
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008
BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z THIS EVENING…RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CUBAN RADAR SITE AT GRAN PIEDRA DEPICTED A NICE DOUGHNUT SHAPED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
HOWEVER…SINCE THAT TIME BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE EYE FEATURE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A RAGGED AND POORLY DEFINED FEATURE.
THEREFORE…GUSTAV HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AND THE INTENSITY LOWERED TO 60 KT…WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE T4.0/65 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES DERIVED AT 00Z.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED BUT IMPROVING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT… AND IS EXCELLENT IN THE OTHER THREE QUADRANTS.
GUSTAV IS MOVING BACK OVER WATER AND IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY ONCE IT CLEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS 290/07…ALTHOUGH THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN ALMOST DUE WEST.
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS…WHICH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER AND ACT TO SLOW DOWN GUSTAV BY DAY 5.
THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFDL AND ECMWF MODELS…WHICH BLAST GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SEEMS PHYSICALLY UNLIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYS 4 AND 5.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK…AND REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAY A MORE PROMINENT ROLE THAN INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND ECMWF.
GUSTAV IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE…WHICH IS INDUCING SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER…THE FLOW IS ALSO STRONGLY DIFLUENT…WHICH SHOULD AID THE RE-INTENSIFICATION PROCESS ONCE GUSTAV CLEARS THE WESTERN PORTION OF HAITI.
BOTH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY BRINGING GUSTAV TO JUST BELOW CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS.
AFTER THAT…POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR MAY CREATE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0300Z 18.6N 73.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 18.9N 74.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 75.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 19.2N 77.1W 85 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 19.4N 78.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 20.5N 82.2W 110 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 23.0N 86.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 26.5N 89.5W 110 KT
August 27th, 2008 at 9:15 am
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
GUSTAV HAS BEEN HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING WITH STRONG BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND RELIABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 50 KT.
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION IS FORESEEN UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI. THEREAFTER…A STEADY INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY…ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INTO THE MORE OPEN WATERS NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT…AND COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM WATERS…RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CENTER IS NEAR OR SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM EARLIER DUE TO THE INITIAL WEAKENING BUT STILL SHOWS THE STORM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
IN THE LONGER-TERM…THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF UPPER-WIND PATTERNS…BUT IN GENERAL THE UPPER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE STORM HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH RECENTLY BUT AN AVERAGED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS YIELDS AN ESTIMATE OF 300/4.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS LIKELY TODAY AS THE STORM BUMPS INTO A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
GUSTAV SHOULD THEN BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE GFS IS AN EXTREME OUTLIER EARLY ON…TAKING THE STORM NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA…WHICH IS CONSIDERED VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 18.6N 73.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 19.0N 74.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 19.2N 77.2W 70 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 19.6N 78.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 21.0N 82.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 31/0600Z 23.5N 86.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 27.0N 89.5W 105 KT
August 27th, 2008 at 9:19 am
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
…GUSTAV CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS TO HAITI…
AT 800 AM EDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES…150 KM…WEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 120 MILES…195 KM…SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THURSDAY ONCE IT MOVES AWAY FROM HAITI.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES…85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA…EASTERN CUBA…JAMAICA…AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION…18.8 N…73.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.
August 27th, 2008 at 11:23 am
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
GUSTAV HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI.
HOWEVER RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAN PIEDRA CUBA SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS IN THE STORM DID NOT ACTUALLY SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT…BUT BASED ON THE TREND SEEN IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WE ASSUME THAT GUSTAV IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR THAT INTENSITY BY NOW.
CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE SOME MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING…ONCE GUSTAV PULLS AWAY FROM HAITI. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT DAYS 4 AND 5… SO WE SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NOTWITHSTANDING…THERE IS VERY LITTLE…IF ANY…SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES.
INDEED…IF ONE LOOKS AT THE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE…IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS NEARLY AN EQUAL CHANCE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE A CATEGORY 1…CATEGORY 2…OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LANDMASS OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI.
HOWEVER A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION…290/4…APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED THIS MORNING.
A 500 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD AND WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEGINNING AROUND DAY 3…THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT BY DAY 5.
ONE SHOULD NOT READ MUCH INTO SUCH SHIFTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE TYPICAL ERROR OF A 5-DAY PREDICTION IS OVER 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/1500Z 18.8N 74.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 74.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 19.2N 76.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 19.3N 77.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 19.9N 79.4W 80 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 21.5N 83.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 24.5N 86.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 28.5N 88.5W 100 KT
August 27th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
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Hurricane Gustav Track Predictions
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO GUSTAV INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED A BIT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999 MB AND A PEAK SFMR WIND OF ABOUT 45 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
DESPITE THE SHORT-TERM WEAKENING…ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA…LIKELY TONIGHT.
STILL…THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE INTENSITY MODELS WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING ROBUST STRENGTHENING…AND THE STATISTICALLY-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THAT FORECAST ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO CRAWL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/03.
THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
IN 2-3 DAYS…THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST…TAKING GUSTAV OVER OR VERY NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BY DAY 5…SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS COULD WEAKEN RESULTING IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.
IN GENERAL…THE TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE STILL REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING GUSTAV’S ULTIMATE TRACK AT DAYS 3-5…AND IT IS MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT IMPACT THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 19.1N 74.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 19.2N 76.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 19.5N 78.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 20.2N 79.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 22.0N 83.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 25.5N 86.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 01/1800Z 28.5N 88.5W 100 KT
August 27th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
National Hurricane Center - Gustav Track Update
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
GUSTAV TURNS WESTWARD AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE…
AT 800 PM EDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR 65 MILES…100 KM…SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR.
A TRACK TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER…ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF GUSTAV VERY NEAR JAMAICA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HOWEVER…SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE GUSTAV MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM HAITI…AND THE STORM COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES…85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB…29.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION…19.0 N…75.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
August 27th, 2008 at 11:02 pm
Hurricane Gustav Path
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 23Z. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF GUSTAV BEGAN TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.
PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 39 KT AND THE HIGHEST RECENT BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 41 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 250/7…ALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO TRACK SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST FIX AND MIGHT BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION.
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE…ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST…IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THIS RIDGE HAS IMPARTED A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION THAT SOME MODELS SHOW PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.
AFTER THAT…GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION AND IMPACT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMINISCENT OF WHAT HAPPENED WITH FAY A WEEK OR SO AGO.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS…THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES MOST STRONGLY ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF…UKMET…GFDL…AND GFS…WHICH IS NOW FOLLOWING THE VORTEX FAIRLY WELL…AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE LEFT.
GUSTAV HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPRUPTED BY ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE TERRAIN OF HAITI. IN ADDITION…MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE OVERTAKING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST.
IN ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS…HOWEVER…GUSTAV SHOULD FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND OVER THE VERY DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…AND SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN.
IN ADDITION…THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES GUSTAV OVER THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.
AFTER THAT…GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION RATE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER RESTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INITIALLY…BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR…AND ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
IT PROBABLY WOULDN’T HURT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE 5-DAY OFFICIAL TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 300 MILES…AND THE AVERAGE 5-DAY INTENSITY ERROR IS ABOUT 25 MPH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0300Z 18.8N 75.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 18.8N 76.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 18.9N 78.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 19.4N 79.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 20.1N 81.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 84.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 02/0000Z 29.0N 89.5W 95 KT
August 28th, 2008 at 10:02 am
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND A SURPRISE THIS MORNING.
GUSTAV HAS EITHER REFORMED TO THE SOUTH OR BEEN MOVING MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
IN ADDITION…THE PRESSURE IS DOWN 10 MB DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.
THE PLANE HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE ENTIRE STORM…BUT IT IS ASSUMED THE WINDS HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY WITH THE SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR…SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR…AND INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA MAY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THUS THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY RAISED FROM EARLIER.
THEREAFTER…THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE TO BE NEAR THE CENTER OF GUSTAV…WHICH WOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.
IT IS EXPECTED THAT GUSTAV WILL BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE NORTHERN GULF BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 215/7.
THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER HAS CAUSED A BIG SOUTHWARD CHANGE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST…AND GUSTAV IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA.
THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING THIS SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW GUSTAV TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND THE TIME IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A MID-LATITUDE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE OHIO VALLEY IN ABOUT 5 DAYS…WHICH MAY CONTINUE STEERING THE STORM IN A NORTHWESTWARD FASHION RATHER THAN ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LIKE THE GFDL SUGGESTS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LONGER-TERM…ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…BUT THE ECMWF AND GFDL ARE TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 17.8N 75.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 77.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.8N 78.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 80.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 82.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 22.0N 85.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 28.5N 91.0W 100 KT
August 28th, 2008 at 11:56 am
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT ABOUT 1130 UTC SHOWED THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAD BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
MY SENSE FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THEN IS THAT GUSTAV HAS STARTED MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD…PERHAPS 265/4.
IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CENTER WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER JAMAICA OR WILL HUG THE SOUTH OR NORTH COAST…BUT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA…ALL MODELS FORECAST GUSTAV TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FOLLOWING FEW DAYS.
THE MODELS ALSO FORECAST A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME…BUT SUFFICIENTLY PROGRESSIVE SUCH THAT IT WOULD NOT BLOCK GUSTAV’S NORTHWARD PROGRESS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA…AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD FORCE GUSTAV TO TURN A LITTLE BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF…BUT THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MINORITY.
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST TO BE IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS.
RELIABLE MODELS REMAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FORECAST TRACK…SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL TRACK.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA…AND ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE WILL ARRIVE ON THE SCENE THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO REORGANIZE…BUT THE INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO MIGHT LIMIT INTENSIFICATION…ALTHOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD MAKE GUSTAV A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME TODAY.
AFTER PASSING JAMAICA…GUSTAV WILL ENCOUNTER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT…FAVORING INTENSIFICATION.
ANY INTERACTION WITH THE NARROW LANDMASS OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE STRENGTH OF GUSTAV OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…WHERE WATERS WILL BE WARM BUT WIND SHEAR COULD SLOWLY INCREASE.
THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE FASTER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.
August 28th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
National Hurricane Center - Gustav Projected Path
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TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA AT ABOUT 1800 UTC TODAY…BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ABLE TO FLY THROUGH THE CENTER NEAR THAT TIME.
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS INDICATED THAT GUSTAV WAS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE INTENSITY…BUT THE DATA WERE NOT QUITE CONVINCING ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY WHICH REMAINS 60 KT.
THE AIRCRAFT SUBSEQUENTLY DETECTED THE CENTER LOCATED INLAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.
A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS GUSTAV INTERACTS WITH LAND…BUT ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TOMORROW…CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.
DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA…COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT SOME POINT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING EITHER…SO GUSTAV COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN A FEW DAYS…AS FORECAST BY ESSENTIALLY ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
GUSTAV IS RESPONDING TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BY CONTINUING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 275/5.
A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THAT RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD IMPART A GRADUAL RIGHT TURN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GENERALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES OVER THE GULF…HOWEVER…BOTH IN TERMS OF PATH AND FORWARD SPEED…BOUNDED BY THE FAST GFDL ON THE RIGHT AND A MUCH SLOWER GFS ON THE LEFT.
DESPITE SOME CHANGES IN THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKS…THE CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS…AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.
IN FACT…TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK…INTENSITY…AND SIZE FORECASTS…THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF LOUISIANA.
GUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/2100Z 18.1N 76.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 18.4N 77.8W 55 KT…INLAND OVER JAMAICA
24HR VT 29/1800Z 19.1N 79.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 81.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 21.5N 83.6W 95 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 25.0N 87.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 28.0N 89.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT…INLAND
August 28th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
Hurricane Gustav Latest Forecast - National Hurricane Center
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
THE CENTER OF GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA DURING THE EVENING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KINGSTON AREA SHOWED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE…AND THE LOWEST OBSERVED PRESSURE WAS 990 MB.
GUSTAV IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER…WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/6…AFTER A SOUTH OF WEST MOTION FOR A FEW HOURS.
GUSTAV IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR…THEN CONTINUE IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96 HR.
THE GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AFTER 96 HR…THERE IS SOME SPREAD…AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON WHETHER A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV.
THE GFDL MOVES THE STORM QUICKLY INLAND…WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS IT SLOWING DOWN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
THE NOGAPS CALLS FOR A LEFT TURN AFTER 96 HR TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HR….WITH RELIABLE MODEL FORECASTS REMAINING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TRACK.
SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS…IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.
GUSTAV IS SHOWING GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AT THIS TIME…BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS…WHICH WOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO RETREAT WESTWARD AS GUSTAV APPROACHES…WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.
HOWEVER…THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW MUCH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE…WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHEAR AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99 KT…THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT…THE GFDL 111 KT…AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.
HOWEVER…IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 HURRICANE BY 72 HR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0300Z 17.8N 77.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.3N 78.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 20.4N 82.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 21.9N 84.2W 100 KT…NEAR COAST OF CUBA
72HR VT 01/0000Z 25.5N 87.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 30.0N 92.5W 90 KT…INLAND
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August 29th, 2008 at 9:24 am
Gustav Projected Path - National Hurricane Center Models
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS AN EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD AND IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STORM’S CIRCULATION FOUND THAT THE SIZE OF GUSTAV HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED.
ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO SAMPLE THE CENTER…PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT WERE OBSERVED…ALONG WITH SIMILAR VALUES FOR THE SFMR.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7.
THERE IS A COMPLICATED EVOLUTION TO THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND GUSTAV DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA THAT HAS BEEN STEERING THE STORM WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY.
THE BERMUDA HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CAUSE GUSTAV TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
ONE BIG QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
SOME OF THE MODELS…SUCH AS THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF…ARE SHOWING THIS LOW CREATING ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ALLOW A MOTION MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA.
IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THAT TRACK BRIEFLY OCCURRED…BUT IN THE LONGER-TERM…A HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT.
HOWEVER…THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE BEND.
THE UKMET AND GFS HAVE HAD LARGE CHANGES TO THEIR FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS…AND GIVEN THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD…WE’VE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
HOPEFULLY A G-IV MISSION LATER TODAY WILL HELP RESOLVE SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES.
AFTER THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM JAMAICA…SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS…COULD PRODUCE A STRONG HURRICANE VERY QUICKLY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AS SOME MODELS SHOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AT THAT TIME.
A LARGE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS TROUGH MAY IMPART SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON GUSTAV AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR…GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0900Z 18.1N 78.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 18.6N 79.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 19.6N 81.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 22.7N 84.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 26.4N 88.1W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 29.0N 91.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 30.0N 93.0W 85 KT…INLAND
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August 29th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Hurricane Gustav - Latest NHC Computer Models
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX OVER WESTERN JAMAICA AT ABOUT 1100 UTC…WHICH INCLUDED A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 988 MB…GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV IS REGAINING ORGANIZATION NOW THAT ITS CENTER HAS EMERGED OVER WATER WEST OF JAMAICA.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT UNTIL WE RECEIVE NEW DATA FROM THE NEXT AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON…ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV IS ALREADY A LITTLE STRONGER.
THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE MORE THAN 24 HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN…AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE…SO STRENGTHENING SEEMS IMMINENT AND COULD EVEN BE RAPID.
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A 28 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SINCE THERE IS ABOUT 36 HOURS LEFT BEFORE GUSTAV CROSSES CUBA…THERE REMAINS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THAT ISLAND.
CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEAR TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE AS WELL…ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE A LITTLE.
THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
GUSTAV IS MOVING AT ABOUT 295/7 BUT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH…AND IS HEADED FOR A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PATH OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA IN ROUGHLY 36 HOURS…FOLLOWED BY A TRACK INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREAFTER…THE MODELS DIVERGE TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MODELS THAT SHOW A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH…WHILE THOSE THAT ARE FASTER AND STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOW LESS OF THAT RIDGING.
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS…GIVING RESPECT TO THE NWS MODELS GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF…WHICH ALSO SEEM TO DEPICT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WE EXPECT GUSTAV TO BE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY…DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN…AND FINAL LANDFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 18.6N 78.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 19.3N 80.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 20.8N 81.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 22.6N 83.8W 95 KT…OVER WESTERN CUBA
48HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.7W 105 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 27.5N 89.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W 100 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 03/1200Z 31.0N 93.0W 60 KT…INLAND
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